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Probabilistic risk and reliability analyses provide methods for integrating the contribution of all contributors to ultimate system performance. They also permit the effects of uncertainties to be reflected directly in the understanding of system outcomes. In order to do this correctly, a good understanding of probabilistic concepts and methods is essential. This subject covers all of these topics.

Ang, A. H-S., and W. H. Tang. Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design, vol. 1, Basic Principles. New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons, 1975. ISBN: 9780471032007.

Rausand, M., and A. Hoyland. System Reliability Theory: Models, Statistical Methods, and Applications. 2nd ed. New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons, 2003. ISBN: 9780471471332.

Homework is assigned approximately weekly, due two class sessions after the date of assignment.

Late homework will receive up to 1/2 full credit.