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Engineering Systems Analysis for Design >> Content Detail



Calendar / Schedule



Calendar

This table provides information about both the lecture (L) and recitation (R) sessions.


SES #TOPICSKEY DATES
Introduction to course
L1Motivation: paradigm shift from best outcome to moving distribution of outcomes to rightESD.70J in parallel for 4 days
Part 1: basics, recognition of uncertainty, valuation fundamentals, and timing issues
Conventional valuation and recognition of uncertainty
L2

Discounted cash flow and present value

Criteria for valuation

R1Valuation methods and discussion for uncertainty exercise
L3Uncertainty recognition
L4

Choice of discount rate

Opportunity cost, weighted average cost of capital, capital asset pricing model

Application Portfolio 1 due: Topic definition
R2Discussion of choice of discount rate and production functions
Timing of development
Basic issue: build now or later?
L5

Asphalt vs. concrete highways

Basic system model: production function, economies of scale

L6Optimum expansion size deterministic case
R3Exercises on production functions and economies of scale
L7

Determining economies of scale from cost function

Constrained optimization and marginal analysis

L8

Sources of flexibility

"On" systems-timing

"In" systems-timing and function

Case examples

Application Portfolio 2 due: Defining uncertainties
R4

Discussion of flexibility in application portfolio

Review of probability determination from data and Bayesian analysis

Part 2: uncertainty modeling and flexibility valuation methods
Decision analysis
L9Uncertainty assessment
L10

Primitive models

Introduction to decision analysis

R5Decision analysis practice
L11

Practical issues

Solutions by "folding back"

Flaw of averages

Application Portfolio 3 due: Flexibility identification
L12

Distribution of outcomes for decision analysis

Value at risk and gain, multiple value metrics

R6Value of information and flexibility
L13Benefits of waiting: value of information
L14Decision analysis examples: oil platform, wind energy, silicon wafer plant, Tokyo/Haneda runwayApplication Portfolio 4 due: Decision analysis
R7Past midterm solutions
L15Mid-semester review
L16Midterm exam
Lattice analysis
L17

Lattice model to represent uncertainty

Regression to determine trend and variability (μ and σ)

R8Review of midterm and of regression analysis
L18Dynamic programming: systematic solution by "folding back"
R9Dynamic programming and valuation of lattice model
L19

Valuation of lattice by dynamic programming

Satellite case study

L20

Combining lattice and decision analysis

Case studies: aqua line tunnel

Application Portfolio 5 due: Lattice analysis of evolution of a major uncertainty
L21Conceptual valuation and applicationApplication Portfolio 6 due: Decision analysis using lattice
R10Advice on application portfolios
L22Comparing decision analysis and lattice analysis
L23

Definition and analysis of "hotspots" using change propagation analysis

Path dependency

Comments on draft application portfolio

Case studies: car platforms, hydroelectric dam, mini unmanned aerial vehicle

Draft of complete portfolio due
L24Perspective on flexibility in design and real options analysis (Part 1)Complete revised portfolio due
L25Perspective on flexibility in design and real options analysis (Part 2)
L26Review for final exam

 








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