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Engineering Risk-Benefit Analysis >> Content Detail



Lecture Notes



Lecture Notes



Acknowledgements


The lecture notes for Part II: Decision Analysis draw strongly on the 1978 course manual "Decision Analysis" by Professors Alvin Drake and Ralph Keeney. The notes for Part III: Cost-Benefit Analysis are derived from material first developed by Professor Amedeo Odoni.


SES #Topics
Part 1: Reliability and probabilistic risk assessment (RPRA)
1

Introduction (PDF)

RPRA 1: The logic of certainty (PDF)

2RPRA 2: Elements of probability theory (PDF)
3RPRA 3: Probability distributions (PDF)
4RPRA 3: Probability distributions (cont.)
5RPRA 4: Availability (PDF)
6RPRA 5: Data and epistemic uncertainties; statistics (PDF)
7RPRA 6: Probabilistic risk assessment (PDF)
8RPRA 6: Probabilistic risk assessment (cont.)
9RPRA 7: Risk management (PDF)
10Guest lecture
11Guest lecture
12RPRA quiz
Part II: Decision analysis (DA)
13DA 1: The multistage decision model (PDF)
14DA 2: The value of perfect information (PDF)
15DA 3: The axioms of rational behavior (PDF)
16

DA 4: Introduction to utility (PDF)

DA 5: Risk aversion (PDF)

17DA 6: Multiattribute utility theory (PDF)
18DA 7: Decision analysis and risk management (PDF)
19Guest lecture
20DA quiz
Part III: Cost-benefit analysis (CBA)
21CBA 1: Background and fundamental premises (PDF)
22CBA 2: The time value of money (PDF)
23CBA 3: Bases for comparison of alternatives (PDF)
24CBA 4: Including uncertainty (PDF)
25CBA 5: Evaluating public activities (PDF)
26Guest lecture
27CBA quiz

 








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